From Picks and Shovels to Coffee and Qubits: Vietnam’s Quantum Playbook
Billy Tang | Sam Kunin
Vint Cerf, one of the “founders of the internet,” once described economic growth in the 1990s as “dog years”—a sevenfold acceleration of productivity since humanity clicked on its first website. Quantum computing represents the next acceleration event, with a crucial difference: while the internet digitized human capabilities, quantum machines will exceed them.
As of 2025, the quantum technology industry has just begun implementing vision boards in supply chains, with the majority of breakthroughs occurring in the last half decade. Microsoft’s Majorana 1 and China’s 504-qubit “Xiaohong” chip have taken the first steps toward achieving the commercialization of encrypted quantum communications, measurement, and algorithm-solving capabilities. McKinsey and Company reports that in the immediate future (2030), quantum technologies will have a market cap of $100 billion.
However, for many investors, the quantum industry is riddled with uncertainty driven by information gaps and tensions between the United States and China surrounding their electronic supply chains. As of 2025, both governments have opted to silo their advanced chip-making and precision manufacturing capabilities, forgoing informational exchanges in favor of greater national security. Innovation is primarily funded and directed by domestic initiatives, such as the U.S.’ CHIPS and Science Act in 2022 and China’s new Five-Year Plan.
History teaches us that during technological revolutions, the suppliers, on average, outperform innovators. As prospectors rushed to chase California Gold, Levi Strauss made his fortune selling jeans. The Dot-Com bubble vaporized countless startups, but the firms providing fiber-optic cables, power grids, and datacenters generated steady returns. This “picks and shovels” strategy is perfect for an emerging industry such as quantum computing, where everyday investors lack the resources and connections to start their own innovation labs. With the escalating competition for quantum computing dominance between the U.S. and China, everyday investors can capitalize on Vietnam’s strategic position as an emerging market supplying the ‘picks and shovels’ of this technological arms race. Through accessible Vietnam ETFs, retail investors can profit from selling the ‘picks and shovels’ to both sides of the quantum arms race, such as precision electronics manufacturing, semiconductor assembly, and rare earth processing. Vietnam’s careful geopolitical position as a China +1 manufacturing alternative positions it to profit from quantum investments flowing from both the U.S. and China, offering investors an opportunity to ride the wave without choosing sides.
Vietnam currently maintains friendly relations with both sides of the US–China tech race, allowing the nation to profit by playing off the two superpowers against each other. Currently, key quantum developments have stalled due to the U.S. and China siloing their technological development, with scientists lamenting that it is too early for competition as key advancements in scaling quantum technology have not been made yet. The breakdown in Sino–U.S. technology exchanges positions Vietnam as the informational middleman as the two powers view the Southeast Asian country as a neutral but capable third party to exchange research and expertise with while avoiding national security pitfalls.
Vietnam’s economic story makes investing in their ETFs particularly compelling. Since the 1986 Đổi Mới reforms, Vietnam has transitioned from an extractive agrarian economy to textile manufacturing to electronics manufacturing. Current FDI trends show a convergence toward advanced electronic manufacturing. Major companies like Intel, Apple and Samsung have established robust networks and chip making facilities in the region. This manufacturing evolution positions Vietnam as the perfect development ground for quantum supply chains. With a combination of advanced manufacturing capabilities, geopolitical stability and cost effectiveness, the Southeast sian state is poised to reap the rewards of the coming quantum revolution.
The 2023 US-Vietnam Comprehensive Strategic Partnership has catalyzed semiconductor agreements supporting Vietnam’s chip packaging and testing capabilities. American firms such as Intel have a $1.5 billion manufacturing plant in Ho Chi Minh City, and Microsoft has strategically pivoted to Vietnam to avoid Trump administration tariffs. With China, Vietnam is an avid partner of China’s “two corridors, one path“ section of the Belt and Road initiative with both countries reaffirming full cooperation in April of 2025.
Supply chain investments in Vietnam avoid most, if not all, of the complications that burden quantum investments in the U.S. and China. Companies manufacturing precision electronics, semiconductor packaging, rare earth processing facilities, and control system components generate revenue regardless of which quantum modality succeeds. Capital from conventional electronics such as phones, chips and computers help keep investment afloat while investors wait for quantum companies to scale production. Regardless of where the first scalable quantum chip originates, the outcome will still drive greater demand for Vietnam’s manufacturing capability.
Vietnam’s renewed focus on developing human capital skilled in advanced manufacturing through their education subsidies and university partnerships benefit investors immensely regardless of outcome. Upgraded electrical grids, enhanced datacenters, and improved logistics serve both domestic ambitions and multinational operations. Engineers trained in quantum manufacturing bring higher capabilities to the general manufacturing industry, a point Intel has already noted as a reason why it established a chip-making facility there. Crucially, this increase in skilled labor along with future infrastructure tailwinds mean that Vietnam can benefit from dual revenue streams, producing both iPhones and Xiaomi phones while re-investing back into their quantum R&D, establishing themselves as a hub for advanced electronics.
Through accessible Vietnam ETFs, retail investors can profit from selling the ‘picks and shovels’ to both sides of the quantum arms race. Precision electronics manufacturing, semiconductor assembly, and rare earth processing are all examples of lucrative tangential industries. Vietnam’s superpower relationships position it as the preferred neutral manufacturing hub, while its domestic investments into quantum infrastructure and human capital guarantee long-term growth. Together, these factors create investment opportunities not grounded in speculative quantum breakthrough timing, but in the observable, ongoing de-globalization and supply chain restructuring already underway.
For retail investors, the time is now. Early positioning by capturing Vietnam ETFs capitalizes on supply chain re-alignment rather than chasing performance after the shift happens. In an uncertain future, Vietnam offers everyday investors a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity: accessible entry, diversified exposure, dual superpower access, and a simple strategy of playing both sides.
Billy Tang is a first year student at Columbia College studying Political Science and Economics.
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